The college bargain, once a pathway to the American Dream, is now a broken promise. This narrative explores the downward mobility of the college-educated working class, a phenomenon that has been brewing for two decades. Noam Scheiber, a labor reporter, chronicles the revolt of this credentialed workforce, highlighting the shift in the labor market where college degrees no longer guarantee good jobs. The Great Recession of 2008 was the catalyst, but the seeds of discontent were sown earlier. The data is stark: the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has consistently outpaced the overall unemployment rate since 2022, a stark contrast to the previous three decades. This trend has led to widespread frustration, with students burdened by debt and unable to secure high-paying jobs. The result? A wave of unionization, with workers across industries, from retail to healthcare, joining forces to fight for better conditions. The movement is not limited to low-wage jobs; even doctors are unionizing, challenging the notion that education and prestige provide protection. This shared sense of precarity is reshaping American identity, with a growing support for socialism among college graduates. The political scientist Peter Turchin's theory of 'overproduction of elites' adds a historical context to this narrative, suggesting that when too many highly educated individuals compete for limited positions, political instability ensues. The future, as Scheiber predicts, may see a majority of people identifying as working class. However, this doesn't mean a complete loss of agency. The college-educated workers, equipped with 'class confidence,' are capable of navigating challenges and pushing for better terms. Paige Craig, a defense-world venture capitalist, offers a different perspective, envisioning a 'second golden age' where displaced labor sparks entrepreneurship and innovation in arts, science, and healthcare. Sumir Chadha, a globalist fund manager, warns of the potential social unrest that could arise from the rapid pace of technological change, particularly in the AI sector. The AI revolution, he argues, is not the origin of the story but a dramatic chapter in a longer narrative. The challenge, as Chadha and Scheiber agree, is that the human and political systems designed to absorb disruption are not keeping pace with the machines. The question remains: can new institutions be built fast enough to mitigate the impact of this technological revolution?
